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You Might Also Like: Trump says considering 'winding down' Iran war but rules out ceasefire
What is Washington doing?
The Hormuz problem
The Kharg Island question
Iran's response
What does 'winning' look like?
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On Friday, as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its third week, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US was "getting very close to meeting our objectives" and was considering "winding down" military operations.Within hours, the Pentagon confirmed it was sending thousands more Marines and additional warships to the region. The contradiction has become the defining tension of the conflict.Speaking to reporters on the South Lawn before his post went up, Trump was direct: "I think we've won. All they're doing is blocking up the Strait. But from a military standpoint, they're finished." On a ceasefire, he was equally blunt: "You don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side," he told reporters, according to AFP.In his Truth Social post, Trump listed US objectives for the first time in the conflict, destroying Iran's missile arsenal, eliminating its navy and air force, and preventing Tehran from ever developing nuclear weapons. He also said other nations would have to take responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz. "The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it, The United States does not," he wrote.The same day, Reuters, citing three US officials, reported that the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship and roughly 2,200 to 2,500 additional Marines were being deployed to the region.The US military now has approximately 50,000 troops in the region, and the two Marine Expeditionary Units being added will bring thousands more Marines and sailors into the theatre. On funding, the AP reported the Pentagon has asked Congress for another $200 billion to continue the war, as the US national debt stands at a record $39 trillion.At the centre of the contradiction is the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shut since the war began on February 28. Around a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes through it. Oil prices have risen roughly 50% since the conflict started, with Brent crude trading above $112 per barrel on Friday.The damage is spreading. The day before, an Iranian strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan natural gas facility caused damage that Qatar's state energy company described as costing $20 billion a year in lost revenue and taking five years to repair. On Friday, Iranian drone attacks hit Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, triggering a fire that was later brought under control.Goldman Sachs warned that Brent crude prices could surge by a further $42 per barrel through 2027 if flows through the strait remain disrupted for 60 days.Axios reported this week that Trump originally wanted to end the war before the end of March, but the Hormuz crisis has pushed those plans back.According to the same report, the White House has been discussing seizing or blockading Iran's Kharg Island, which handles around 90% of Iranian crude exports, to pressure Tehran into reopening the strait.When asked by an AFP reporter about those plans, Trump said: "I may have a plan or I may not. It's certainly a place that people are talking about."Axios also reported that Trump's team has been at a loss about how to reopen the strait, and that allies who have spoken with him describe a president simultaneously thrilled with the military campaign and frustrated that no one will help solve the Hormuz problem.Iran is not signalling any wind-down. Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader, who has not appeared publicly since succeeding his father killed on the war's first day, issued a Nowruz message on Friday saying Iran had delivered "a dizzying blow" to its enemies and that the enemy had "fallen into contradictions and irrational statements."Iran's Revolutionary Guards separately stated, according to Al Jazeera, that missile production was continuing and that they were not running out.Trump publicly called NATO allies "cowards" on Friday for not committing forces to help police the strait. Six major powers, including the UK, France, Germany, and Japan, issued a statement expressing readiness to "contribute to appropriate efforts," but several made clear they would not deploy forces while active hostilities continued.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters this week that "the President and the Pentagon predicted it would take approximately 4-6 weeks to achieve this mission. Tomorrow marks week 3."When asked for a timeline at a Pentagon briefing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said only: "It will be at the president's choosing, ultimately."Three weeks in, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, oil is trading above $110 a barrel, and additional US troops are heading to the region. The White House has not outlined what a post-war settlement looks like, or how the strait gets reopened.