A blast that injured over 30 civilians and tore through homes in Bahrain’s Mahazza earlier this month may have been caused by an American-operated Patriot air defense battery and not an Iranian drone attack as previously believed.
On Saturday, Bahrain acknowledged for the first time that a Patriot missile was involved in the explosion over the Mahazza neighborhood on Sitra island, offshore from the capital Manama and also home to an oil refinery.
What Bahrain said In a statement to Reuters, a Bahraini government spokesperson said the missile successfully intercepted an Iranian drone mid-air, saving lives.
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“The damage and injuries sustained were not a result of a direct impact to the ground of either the Patriot interceptor or the Iranian drone,” the spokesperson said.
US and Bahrain have Patriot systems Both Bahrain and the United States operate US Patriot air defense batteries in the kingdom, a close US ally located on the Persian Gulf that hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet along with the regional US naval command.
What happened on March 9 On the night of the explosion in Mahazza, the refinery on Sitra came under Iranian attack, according to the Bahraini national oil company Bapco.
Video of the aftermath of the Mahazza blast in Bahrain, verified by Reuters, shows rubble around houses, a thick layer of dust in the streets, an injured man and screaming residents.
Reuters could not establish whether the cause of the explosion during a night of Iranian attacks on Sitra would have been immediately apparent to US and Bahraini forces.
What researchers found But research associates Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman and Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey concluded with moderate-to-high confidence that the suspect missile was likely launched from a U.S. Patriot battery located about 7 km to the southwest of the Mahazza neighborhood.
The conclusions of the three American munitions and open-source intelligence researchers were based on their review of open-source visuals and commercial satellite imagery.
Produced by Raytheon, part of RTX Corp, the Patriot is the U.S. Army’s primary high-to-medium-range air and missile interceptor system and forms the backbone of U.S. and allied air defenses.
The researchers were unable to say with confidence what caused the Patriot to explode. But they added that based on the available evidence, including the pattern and spread of damage on the ground, it appeared to have detonated mid-flight.
They concluded that it was possible the Patriot was aimed at a low-flying drone and that the combined explosion of the missile and drone ignited the blast, the analysis said.
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“If this was the case, this was an irresponsible intercept attempt as it endangered the lives and the homes of allied civilians in a residential area,” the analysis said.
This scenario matches what Bahrain’s government spokesperson said happened: that the Patriot intercepted an Iranian drone and both detonated in the air.
Asymmetric war The use of costly, advanced weaponry to defend against attacks by far cheaper drones has been a defining feature of the war. The incident points to the risks and limitations of this strategy: The blast from the powerful Patriot, whether or not it intercepted a drone, contributed to widespread damage and casualties, while Bahrain’s air defenses were unable to prevent strikes that night on the nearby oil refinery, which declared force majeure hours later.
(With Reuters inputs)