New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party’s bid to script a victory in states where it has traditionally lacked support will be put to the test in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and the UT of Puducherry, where elections will be held between April 9 and April 29. In Assam, which also goes to the polls (on April 9) the party is fighting to retain power for the third time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a public meeting, in Ernakulam, Kerala. BJP state President Rajeev Chandrasekhar and others are also seen. (PTI)

The elections, then, will be a measure of the party’s outreach, the strength of its election narrative, and a crucial indicator of whether it has been able to breach the opposition’s fortresses — Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In some measure, it will also be a test of the BJP’s new president Nitin Nabin, although, like always, the campaign will be led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

After seeing its Lok Sabha numbers fall to 240 in the 2024 general election, the lowest since 2014, the BJP was buoyed by victories in five of the eight states that went to the polls that year. It won in Odisha, Haryana, Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh, and its ally, the TDP, won in Andhra Pradesh (the Odisha and Andhra assembly polls were held along with the general election). The opposition won in Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Sikkim. Last year, the party won in Delhi and, along with the Janata Dal (United), retained power in Bihar.

In West Bengal, where the BJP is the main opposition, the party has pitched its election narrative primarily on national security and administrative lapses.

“There is rampant corruption in the state. Law and order is abysmal and owing to the state government’s vote bank politics, illegal settlers have been allowed to thrive at the cost of the Bengali people,” said a senior party leader who is currently deputed in the state for electioneering.

To be sure, the BJP’s election narrative was on similar issues in 2021 when it won 77 of the 294 seats on offer.

The Trinamool Congress government in the state, headed by Mamata Banerjee, has been in power since 2011, and the BJP will be hoping anti-incumbency kicks in at some point.

The party, however, does not have a state leader who can take on Banerjee.

That’s true of Tamil Nadu and Kerala as well, although, in the first place, this is not very important as the BJP is a junior partner in the AIADMK-led alliance, and the Dravidian party has made it clear that even if the alliance wins, the national political hegemon will not be part of the government.

“In Tamil Nadu, the ruling DMK faces intense anti-incumbency. The party has little to show by way of good administration. The NDA, powered by the development agenda of the Narendra Modi government, will script history in the state,” said an office bearer.

The AIADMK itself faces intense pressure, as the party has been riven by differences and splits since the death of its leader and former CM, J Jayalalithaa.

In the 2021 assembly polls, the AIADMK won 66 of the 234 seats, while the BJP won four and the PMK won 5, taking the NDA’s tally to 75, while the DMK-led alliance won 159 seats.

In neighbouring Kerala, the BJP’s best-case scenario is to edge past the Congress to emerge as the main opposition to the ruling LDF government headed by CPI-M’s Pinarayi Vijayan -- although most analysts say that is unlikely.

The party has been actively building networks with the Christian community in the state and has firmed up alliances with a bunch of smaller parties, such as the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), which wields clout among the Ezhava community and the Twenty20 Party, launched by industrialist Sabu M Jacob. Other allies include the Kerala Congress (Democratic), a breakaway faction of the Kerala Congress led by Saji Manjakadambil, the Kerala Kamaraj Congress, and the Lok Jan Shakti Party.

In the 2021 elections, the BJP won none of the 113 seats it contested in the state.

In Assam, where the BJP has been in power for two terms now, the election narrative is again on ideological concerns such as demographic changes and illegal settlers. Party leaders said CM Himanta Biswa Sarma’s image as a hardliner has both pluses and minuses. “While there is resistance on the ground to illegal settlers, there is also a section of ethnic Assamese minorities who find the BJP’s politics to be polarising…,” said a state leader who asked not to be named.

Indeed, people familiar with the matter said the party’s ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, suggested that the Assam campaign focus on development and economic issues, and that the party build ties with Assamese minorities. They added that the RSS expressed concern over the alienation of the Assamese and Bengali-speaking Muslims. In 2021, the BJP contested 93 seats and won 60 seats to form a government for the second time.