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Chief election commissioner Gyanesh Kumar announced a significantly compressed electoral schedule with one-phase polls on April 9 in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry, and April 23 in Tamil Nadu. West Bengal , which went to the polls in eight phases at the height of the second wave of Covid five years ago, will see two-phase polls on April 23 and 29. This is the fewest phases in the crucial eastern state since 2001. The results will be out on May 4.
New Delhi: Roughly 174 million voters across four states and a Union Territory will vote in assembly polls next month, the Election Commission of India ( ECI ) declared on Sunday, setting in motion a crucial electoral cycle that will have deep ramifications for national politics.
“With regards to the West Bengal elections to be held in two phases instead of eight phases earlier, the commission has held detailed deliberations and in its considered opinion, it was found necessary to reduce the number of phases and bring it down to an extent where it is convenient for everybody,” Kumar said, flanked by election commissioners Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi.
Three of the states going to the polls – Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala – have never seen a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government and represent the final frontier for the party. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is in power in Assam, where it hopes to come back to power for a third consecutive time, and Puducherry, where it is attempting a second straight shot at forming the government.
The elections are also a test of survival for strong regional leaders Mamata Banerjee who is seeking a fourth straight term, MK Stalin who is seeking a second consecutive term, and Pinarayi Vijayan who is seeking a third back-to-back term.
“As all of you are aware, these five states and Union Territories represent distinct geographical and cultural landscapes of India. These elections represent not only a democratic exercise but also the cultural richness of India, and truly reflect the unity in diversity of our nation,” Kumar said.
ECI said 218,807 polling stations will be set up and around 2.5 million officials—including 1.5 million election officials, 850,000 security personnel, 49,000 micro observers for polling, 15,000 micro observers for counting, and 40,000 counting officials—will be deployed.
Kumar said that over the past few days, ECI visited all the poll-bound states, held meetings with recognised political parties, sought their suggestions, and interacted with district electoral officers, superintendents of police, inspectors general, deputy inspectors general, and nodal officers from various enforcement agencies.
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“The commission also held meetings with the Chief Electoral Officers, Chief Secretaries, and DGPs of the respective states and Union Territories,” CEC added.
ECI also announced eight assembly bypolls across six states, including in Baramati, which was vacated after the death of former Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar in a plane crash in January.
This is the first set of elections being held after the special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls was completed in 10 states, except Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Around 6 million people in Bengal have been flagged under a controversial “logical discrepancy” category and their applications are currently being adjudicated by a group of 500 judicial officers. Their fate remains uncertain – ECI’s presentation on Sunday appeared to delete the whole group from its estimation of the total voters in Bengal – though the Supreme Court has asked ECI to publish supplementary voter lists.
Led by West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, the Opposition has opposed SIR in the streets and in the Supreme Court, arguing that it was meant to disenfranchise poor and vulnerable populations. But CEC Kumar emphasised the importance of maintaining “pure electoral rolls” in elections, calling them the “bedrock of any democracy.”
“Pure electoral rolls are the bedrock of any democracy. With this objective the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) is being conducted as per Article 326 of the Constitution to ensure that no eligible elector is left out while no ineligible person is included in the electoral roll. I congratulate all the booth level officers, assistant electoral registration officers, electoral registration officers, district election officers and all election officials who were involved in this work for ensuring its smooth conduct and completion. It has been a massive democratic exercise,” he said.
Kumar said presiding officers at all polling booths will upload voter turnout data every two hours and immediately after voting ends.
“The Election Commission will ensure greater transparency in the counting of votes and announcement of results. Election Commission has asked all enforcement agencies to ensure elections are impartial and violence-free,” he said.
Bengal, the largest state to go to the polls in this cycle, is expected to see the fiercest battle. In a state where poll campaigns and even post-poll events are often violent, ECI moved from seven and eight-phase polls in 2016 and 2021, respectively, to just two phases; 152 assembly constituencies across the north, central and western parts of the state will go to the polls on April 23 and 142 seats in the heart of south Bengal, the citadel of the Trinamool Congress, will vote on April 29. In 2006 and 2011, Bengal went to the polls in five and six phases respectively.
Hours before the announcement, Banerjee announced clearance of dearness allowance arrears for state government employees and a hike in the honorarium of purohits and muezzins – the first 55 minutes before the announcement and the second 80 minutes before. Asked about the announcement, Kumar said any move by governments prior to the announcement of polls is their prerogative.
“The model code of conduct comes into effect after the announcement of polls and not before,” he added.
In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government is hoping to nix anti-incumbency and defeat a coalition led by its Dravidian rival All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, with actor-turned-politician Vijay forming the third node of the contest.
In Kerala, the only state ruled by the Left, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan will aim to beat back a storm of corruption allegations, and defeat the surging United Democratic Front, and the BJP that is looking for a toehold in the southern state.
In Assam, chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma will attempt to match his one-time mentor Tarun Gogoi by winning a third straight assembly election amid shrill allegations of corruption and communalism.
And in Puducherry, regional strongman N Rangaswamy will hope to steer the NDA towards another victory.
But these elections will have ramifications that will resonate far beyond Kolkata or Chennai, Guwahati or Thiruvananthapuram. For the NDA, it is an opportunity to win territories that have traditionally not warmed up to its ideological or electoral appeal. It will set the mood for a clutch of key assembly polls next spring and can steady the hand of Prime Minister Narendra Modi amid great international turbulence.
For the Opposition, the elections offer a chance to stem the tide of losses that followed its stellar performance in the 2024 general elections and win major states with enormous political heft.
It can re-establish the Opposition as a force and put wind in the sails of regional parties such as the Trinamool Congress or the DMK – an eventuality that can alter the power equations within the INDIA bloc as well. A strong performance will likely make the Opposition more aggressive in Parliament.
Another 50 days from now, the national picture will be clear.