Live Events
as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now!
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel
With the Nifty already down 9% in March amid daily whiplash between war escalation and peace talk rumors, investors face a brutal question: deploy cash into the carnage or wait for clarity that may never arrive at these prices? The old Wall Street adage—"Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets"—has turned treacherous as Trump attempts to sound the trumpets while cannons still roar from the Middle East, leaving even seasoned market watchers scrambling for direction."Markets don't reward those waiting for certainty, they reward those willing to act amid discomfort," Gaurav Bhandari, CEO of Monarch Networth Capital, told ET Markets. "The biggest mistake investors are making right now is holding excess cash waiting for clarity. By the time visibility improves, markets would have already moved up significantly."Bhandari's prescription is to not be defensive at this stage. “It is a time to be selectively aggressive, with a clear focus on businesses that can compound earnings over the next few years."After maintaining a cautious stance on equities for nearly two years, DSP Mutual Fund has turned decisively optimistic, now advocating a 'buy' approach. The firm noted that valuations, especially for large caps, are now close to long-term averages, with banks, IT, healthcare, insurance, housing finance and select FMCG names, which collectively form more than half of market cap, at or below historical multiples.For large caps with ROEs of 15-16% trading below 17x earnings and growing at 10-12%, DSP argues allocation makes sense even at current growth rates, with upside potential once earnings revive.Emkay Global's Seshadri Sen sees the current levels as "the bottom for the markets," maintaining a December 2026 Nifty target of 29,000 based on 20x P/E. His top recovery plays target the worst performers since Feb. 26: OMCs trading below long-term average on price-to-book, L&T (down 22% with minimal Middle East project damage), HDFC Bank (down 16%, trading at 1.5x book value after overreacting to the chairman resignation), Bajaj Finance (down 16%), Shriram Finance (down 19%), IndiGo (down 18%), and Ashok Leyland (down 23%)."The short episode is unlikely to derail India's consumption-led recovery, and we see FY27 Nifty earnings growth on track at around 15%," Sen said.But not everyone is ready to sound all-clear. Pradeep Gupta, Executive Director at Lighthouse Canton, urged measured caution over panic. "The enormity of this entire crisis requires caution and not panic. Reacting too quickly to market moves at this juncture is unwarranted," he said, warning that "markets will be quick to reprice the risk, not necessarily in a desired manner."Gupta advocates building positions in quality businesses that have corrected meaningfully, while maintaining a tactical cash buffer and uncorrelated plays for resilience. "This is not the time for active top-down anchoring to take aggressive sectoral bets," he said, suggesting short-term fixed income positions for gradual rebalancing.For those prioritizing capital protection, Amit Modani, Senior Fund Manager at Shriram AMC, recommends shifting surplus liquidity toward the short end of the yield curve. With India VIX surging and oil above $100, "long-duration products face significant mark-to-market risks," he said. Overnight and liquid money market funds offer minimal interest rate sensitivity as a "safe harbor" while waiting for the "fog of war" to clear, allowing tactical redeployment once geopolitics stabilize.The bottom line for investors is that SIPs should continue and perhaps be stepped up during corrections. "Periods of heightened uncertainty typically offer the best entry points into quality businesses," Bhandari said, adding that investors need to shift their mindset from trying to predict events to building positions in fundamentally strong companies when sentiment is weak.Whether the cannons or trumpets ultimately prove right, one thing is certain: the market won't wait for permission to move.