How market crash can impact your retirement corpus

Retirement corpus value when market falls 10%, 20%and 30% (As per Nehal Mota)

Corpus

10% fall

20% fall

30% fall

₹1 crore

₹1,00,00,000 × (1 – 0.10) = ₹90,00,000

₹1,00,00,000 × (1 – 0.20) = ₹80,00,000

₹1,00,00,000 × (1 – 0.30) = ₹70,00,000

₹2 crores

₹2,00,00,000 × (1 – 0.10) = ₹1.8 crore

₹2,00,00,000 × (1 – 0.20) = ₹1.6 crore

₹2,00,00,000 × (1 – 0.30) = ₹1.4 crore

Gain required to recover the loss (in %)

11%

25%

43%

What should an investor do to avoid the impact of market crash on retirement corpus?

Retirement investment strategy explained (as per Vinayak Magotra)

Strategy / Approach

Time Horizon

Asset Allocation

Key Objective

Key Feature

Bucket Strategy – Short-term

2–3 years

Safe & liquid funds

Protect immediate expenses from market volatility

Stability and liquidity

Bucket Strategy – Medium-term

Next few years

Relatively stable investments

Balance risk and returns

Moderate risk exposure

Bucket Strategy – Long-term

Long-term

Equities

Higher growth potential

Higher risk, higher returns

Glide Path / Life Cycle Funds (SEBI)

Entire lifecycle

Starts with high equity, shifts to debt over time

Reduce risk as retirement nears

Automated, disciplined investing

Gradual Equity Reduction

Pre-retirement phase

Decreasing equity, increasing debt

Lower portfolio risk over time

Investor-driven adjustments

Component / Strategy

Time Horizon

Asset Allocation

Purpose

Key Benefit

Short-term bucket

2–5 years

Liquid funds / Fixed deposits (low-risk)

Cover immediate expenses

Protects against market volatility

Medium-term bucket

5–7 years

Hybrid funds

Balance risk and returns

Provides stability with some growth

Long-term bucket

Long-term

Equities

Long-term growth

Higher return potential

Dynamic asset allocation

Ongoing

Flexible mix of equity & debt

Adjust portfolio based on market conditions

Reduces volatility impact

Flexible withdrawal strategy

During downturns

Use debt portion for withdrawals

Avoid selling equities in falling markets

Prevents losses

Safety buffer

2–3 years

Safe assets

Emergency/near-term expenses

Ensures liquidity and stability

Asset allocation for retirement portfolio

Rebalancing of retirement portfolio is necessary

Mistakes to avoid while creatin a creating crash-proof retirement corpus

Aspect / Theme

Nehal Mota

Vinayak Magotra

Equity exposure

Avoid high equity allocation near retirement

Ensure portfolio avoids forced equity selling during downturns

Liquidity planning

Do not ignore liquidity needs

Proper structuring prevents distress selling

Withdrawal strategy

Avoid rigid withdrawal approach

Stay invested; don’t react impulsively

Market behaviour

Timing of returns matters more than average returns

Market falls are temporary; avoid panic selling

Investor behaviour

Focus on discipline and resilience, not risk elimination

Avoid emotional decisions during volatility

Investment approach

Use allocation, liquidity, and rebalancing for stability

Do not abandon long-term strategy midway

If the market takes a big hit, most investors panic, including those close to retirement. A Rs 2-crore equity-heavy retirement corpus can be reduced to just Rs 1.6 crore if the market falls by 30% before you retire. Often, market slumps last so long that you can’t just sit around, waiting for it to bounce back, especially when retirement is looming.So, what can you do? Can you make your retirement corpus crash-proof? Or at least something that can cushion the blow of market shocks enough so that your cashflow during the retirement phase isn’t affected by the market fall?Vinayak Magotra, product head & founding team, Centricity WealthTech, says that if you are looking to retire in a few years, it’s a good idea to start rebalancing your retirement portfolio at least 24 months ahead of your retirement date.“During this period, equity exposure can be gradually reduced in a staggered manner, typically through SWPs, to build a more stable debt portfolio,” Magotra explains.But what if you are retiring today and the market is yet to recover? Won’t your retirement corpus be hit badly? How will you ensure your monthly cashflow?Nehal Mota, co-founder & CEO, Finnovate, suggests bucket strategy as an effective way to manage this risk, allocating 3–5 years of expenses in low-risk instruments like liquid funds or fixed deposits.Mota reveals a market crash near retirement can significantly damage the corpus due to sequence of returns risk when negative returns occur just before or after retirement, and withdrawals begin simultaneously.“A 25–30% fall needs 35–45% gains to recover. Early withdrawals during a crash permanently erode wealth,” explains Mota.Mota says the concern is not just the market fall, but the reduced base from which withdrawals continue, making recovery difficult even if markets bounce back later.Magotra says the bucket strategy is a practical way to deal with this risk.He explains that his strategy involves dividing allocations by time; for immediate expenses, he suggests keeping 2-3 years of expenses in safer, more liquid funds to avoid being affected by market fluctuations.Shobhit Mathur, co-founder, Ionic Wealth, says the smarter approach is not chasing a ‘crash-proof’ strategy, but structuring your portfolio into time-based buckets, keeping 2–3 years of expenses in low-risk, liquid assets so that equities get time to recover, while staying diversified across equities, global exposure, gold, and income assets.Mota too recommends a bucket strategy, suggesting that you should have at least 2–3 years of expenses in safe assets. For 3–5 years of expenses, she advises using low-risk instruments like liquid funds or fixed deposits. For 5–7 years’ expenses, consider hybrid funds, and for the rest, invest in equities for long-term growth.If you want to retire today with Rs 1 crore retirement portfolio, what should be your asset allocation for a crash-proof portfolio?Mota suggests allocating 30% (Rs 30 lakh) in liquid or ultra-short-term instruments for immediate needs, 40% (Rs 40 lakh) in medium-to-long duration debt or hybrid funds for stability over the medium term, and 30% (Rs 30 lakh) in equity funds such as index or large-cap funds for long-term growth.“This structure ensures liquidity, stability, and growth, making the portfolio more resilient to market shocks,” predicts Mota.Magotra feels there cannot be a completely crash-proof portfolio and to generate meaningful long-term returns, some allocation to equities is necessary.He also says that the key lies in gradually tilting the portfolio towards debt at the right time, well before actual withdrawals begin from the retirement corpus. This shift helps reduce volatility and protects the portfolio as the goal approaches.“As part of this transition, the debt allocation can include high-quality bonds, arbitrage funds, and now even SIFs, depending on suitability and investor requirements,” says Magotra.Mathur suggests that a ‘crash-proof’ portfolio cannot be one-size-fits-all, as it must be designed around your risk profile, expected lifestyle expenses, and the inflation impacting those needs.According to his strategy, for a Rs 1-crore corpus, one can allocate roughly 50–70% to domestic equities for long-term growth, 15–25% to global equities for geographical diversification, 10–15% to precious metals like gold as a hedge during market stress and 10–30% to income-generating assets such as debt or fixed income for stability and cash flows.Even if your equity allocation for long-term growth is high, you need to rebalance your portfolio as retirement nears and you can shift your equities towards less-risky asset. But when is it the right time to rebalance your portfolio and what should be the percentage of assets you should shift?Mota believes it should be done annually or when allocations deviate by 5–10%.“During bull markets, trimming equity exposure and reallocating to debt helps lock in gains, while during corrections, shifting some funds back to equity enables participation in recovery,” Mota explains her strategy.Magotra is of view that rebalancing should ideally begin at least 24 months before the actual retirement date.Magotra suggests that during this period, equity exposure can be gradually reduced in a staggered manner, typically through SWPs, to build a more stable debt portfolio.“The approach would also depend on the expected withdrawals from the retirement corpus, while factoring in aspects like taxation, exit loads, and overall cash flow requirements,” says Magotra.