The volatility problem and why it matters
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The government's move on OMCs: A smart buffer
Where to invest now: The selective play
Private sector banks: Attractive, but stagger your entry
IT, infra, and real estate: A nuanced picture
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India's equity markets are entering a cautious holding pattern as geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the US-Iran conflict continues to weigh on investor sentiment. But according to market expert Neeraj Dewan , the worst of the volatility may be behind us — and for patient investors, selective opportunities are beginning to emerge.The single biggest obstacle to any market recovery right now isn't oil prices or inflation. It's volatility itself."The volatility that we were seeing in the markets had been too high," Dewan told ET Now. "Volatility needs to subside for the markets to make some sort of a base and for people to start thinking about putting money in."The 10-day extension of the US deadline — avoiding an immediate escalation — is a small but meaningful positive in his view. It buys time. It dampens the daily shock of fresh headlines. And critically, it opens a window for a deal to materialise.Dewan believes India may have already seen its market bottom, but stops short of full conviction. "You cannot be 100% sure till you get some deal happening between US and Iran, with Iran also agreeing to it," he said.One development drawing attention Friday morning is the Indian government's decision to cut excise duty to cushion Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) against rising crude-related losses. Dewan views this as a strategically important intervention.The immediate concern for the Indian economy has been a sharp rise in inflation eroding growth prospects over the next two quarters. By absorbing OMC losses rather than allowing fuel prices to be passed on to consumers, the government is directly targeting that risk."At least consumers will not have to bear the brunt of higher prices," Dewan said. "That will go a long way for the economy." Expect short-term positive momentum in OMC stocks as markets digest this news.Despite the uncertainty, Dewan is not telling investors to walk away entirely. Instead, he outlines a clear framework for where to look during this period of turbulence.His favoured sectors for accumulation — even now — include IT, pharma, renewable energy, coal-integrated energy companies, and defence. These are businesses with either domestic demand visibility, energy cost insulation, or structural tailwinds that are unlikely to be derailed by a conflict that, he hopes, resolves within the next seven to ten days. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank have both taken hits over the past ten days, and Dewan sees valuation appeal in both. ICICI Bank has been trading at compressed multiples for some time. HDFC Bank, following its recent leadership change and subsequent fall, is similarly attractive on a valuation basis.The caveat is timing. If the conflict is resolved quickly, the economic impact on credit demand and growth will be minimal and these banks will recover. But if tensions drag on for several more weeks, a broader economic slowdown becomes more likely — and that would filter through to loan books.His advice: invest in small, staggered portions for anyone with a two-to-three year horizon. "I am not saying do not invest at all, but invest in small parts."On IT, Dewan urges patience ahead of earnings season. Infosys's half-billion-dollar acquisition signals ambition, but with AI's impact on the sector still being debated, he recommends waiting for post-results conference calls before committing.Infrastructure names — particularly those exposed to water projects and defence — remain on his watchlist, but he wants resolution on the geopolitical front before pulling the trigger. Real estate, which has been correcting for over a year independent of the current crisis, is beginning to look interesting for longer-term accumulation despite near-term downside risk.Neeraj Dewan's message is disciplined and clear: keep your watchlist ready, build positions gradually in resilient sectors, and wait for the fog to lift before making aggressive moves. The opportunity is coming — just not quite yet.