On Friday, chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma threatened to break the “backbone” of Miyas, a pejorative term for Bengali-speaking Muslims, if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) returns to power for the third consecutive time in Assam. Ethnic and linguistic tensions in Assam date back to the 19th century, when the British declared Bengali the official language. (AFP/Representative)

“In the past five years, I have broken the bones, hands, and legs of Bangladeshi Miyas [politically]. In the next five years, I will break their backbone as well so that they cannot challenge the indigenous people,” Sarma said on the campaign trail ahead of the April 9 election.

All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal hit back at Sarma. He said Sarma’s intimidating tactics would no longer succeed. “He will lose the election and have to leave Assam...then there will be dadagiri [intimidation] of Miyas,” said Ajmal, whose party has Bengali-speaking Muslims among its core supporters.

Sarma sharpened his rhetoric against Miyas in the run-up to the polls as the ruling BJP seeks to play on the fear of “outsiders”. The fear is not new. The perceived threat to the indigenous people’s demography, language, culture, and land from outsiders, especially Miyas, has resulted in agitations that claimed hundreds of lives. It has shaped political and electoral discourse.

Ethnic and linguistic tensions in Assam date back to the 19th century, when the British declared Bengali the official language in 1836. The protests against the move forced its withdrawal in 1873.

The 1947 partition and the linguistic reorganisation of states in the 1970s sparked fresh protests against the “outsiders.” In the 1980s, the six-year agitation against “infiltrators” from Bangladesh ended with the 1985 Assam Accord, which finalised March 24, 1971, as the cut-off date for citizenship.

As part of the accord, the government promised to seal the border with Bangladesh and detect and deport undocumented immigrants who entered the state after Bangladesh’s creation in 1971.

But the misgivings against Miyas remained, even as many of them were Indians as per the cutoff date. A significant proportion of Assamese continue to regard them as outsiders. A National Register of Citizens was created in Assam to identify undocumented immigrants who came to the state after 1971.

Muslims in Assam are not a monolith. Apart from Miyas, there are also Muslim groups, such as Goriya and Moriya, who speak Assamese.

The migration of Bengali-speaking people from what is now Bangladesh dates back to British rule, when they were settled in the fertile tracts for cultivation. The trend continued even after partition, when East Bengal became East Pakistan and, in 1971, Bangladesh.

The BJP has used the anti-Miya sentiment to its advantage with the promise of stopping “illegal infiltration” from Bangladesh and detecting and deporting them. It formed its government in Assam for the first time in 2016 and returned to power in 2021 on the slogan of protecting “jati, mati, bheti” (race, land, and home).

The BJP’s campaign against Miyas intensified after Sarma became the chief minister in 2021. Sarma’s policies, such as evicting those described as “encroachers” from government land and implementing stringent laws regulating cattle and beef transportation, slaughter, and sale, have been seen as measures targeting Miyas.

The government has used provisions of a 1950 law, the Immigrants (Expulsion from Assam) Act, to bypass foreign tribunals and “push back” those deemed as “foreigners” to Bangladesh since last year.

Sarma has claimed Miyas will account for 40% of the state’s population after the next census (2026-2027). As per the 2011 census, 10.67 million Muslims in Assam were 34.22% of the population. A sub-committee formed in 2021 for Assamese Muslims put their numbers at about 4.2 million.

Sarma has said the evictions targeting Miyas and other campaigns would continue when the BJP returns to power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah have praised the eviction. Shah has promised to deport all undocumented immigrants from Assam and the rest of the country.

The Congress has sought to counter the BJP’s polarisation by stressing on creating “Bor Axom”. “We aim not just to overthrow the BJP and return to power, but also to create a Bor Axom, where people from all communities can live peacefully and without fear, and no one is targeted because of their religion or language,” said Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi.

Dibrugarh University political science professor Kaustubh Deka said the government’s policies against Miyas—from evictions, to policy campaign against child marriages—seem to be a very broad and complex combination of hardline Hindutva, social reformism, and Assamese sub-nationalism. “It has strengthened the Assamese-Miya polarisation.”

Deka said it plays into the fear psychosis that Assam would turn into some districts with a Muslim majority. “That narrative has existed before, but this government has taken some action on the ground, including demolishing houses and mosques with bulldozers [during evictions].”

Deka said the BJP has benefited from it before and will do so again, as it appeals to a section of voters who fear cultural aggression from outsiders. “Miyas might not be the major factor in how people will vote.”

Bengali-speaking Muslims are a majority in districts such as Dhubri, Barpeta, and Goalpara, and play a decisive role in elections. They were the deciding factor in 30 to 35 of the 126 seats in Assam. This has changed with the redrawing of seats in 2023.

Political scientist Abu Nasar Saied, who has authored books on Muslim voting trends in Assam, said Muslims will play a crucial role in the outcome of 22-23 seats. “The community once voted en masse for the Congress and then shifted to AIUDF.”

He said the Muslim vote in around two dozen seats in western Assam is likely to shift back to Congress as AIUDF is not in a position to form the government or be part of any ruling or opposition alliance.

All Assam Minority Students Union chief adviser Ainuddin Ahmed said that eviction, specifically targeting Miyas, is an election issue in areas where Muslims are in large numbers. He cited strict rules on cow slaughter and sale, and the consumption of beef, etc, will play on the minds of Muslims voters when they vote, but most people from the community agree with the campaign against child marriages.

Gauhati University political science professor Akhil Ranjan Dutta said the fear of Miyas seems to be a new normal. “The targeting of Miyas will be a factor, but since the government has tried to balance it with schemes and development projects, which have benefitted all sections, it might not have a huge impact.”