Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined the monthlong Middle East conflict on Saturday, saying they had launched two missiles toward Israel. Around 2,500 US Marines were deployed to the region, while Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif said that regional leaders would meet on Sunday to discuss ways to bring an end to the war.

The conflict has put global oil and natural gas supplies at risk, led to fertilizer shortages, and disrupted air travel. Iran’s control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz has unsettled markets and driven up prices. The United States and Israel have continued strikes on Iran, which has responded with attacks on Israel and nearby Gulf Arab countries. The death toll has surpassed 3,000.

The Houthis’ involvement could further disrupt global shipping, particularly if they resume attacks on vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, a route that typically carries about 12% of global trade.

What is Bab el-Mandeb Strait? The Bab el-Mandeb, meaning “Gate of Tears,” is a narrow waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. It lies between Yemen to the northeast and Eritrea and Djibouti to the southwest. Perim Island splits the strait into two channels, as reported by Bloomberg.

The western channel, which is wider and deeper, is used by larger ships and measures about 16 miles (25 kilometers) across at its narrowest point, with a depth of roughly 170 fathoms (310 meters).

Arabian Peninsula maritime chokepoints:

View full Image View full Image Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

A smaller channel runs along the Yemeni coast and is about two miles wide. Maritime traffic through the strait is organized into separate inbound and outbound lanes, each approximately two miles in width.

Why Bab el-Mandeb Strait matters? The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a crucial link in the trade route connecting the Mediterranean to Asia. Ships transporting goods between Europe and Asia, as well as Middle Eastern oil bound for Europe and North America, pass through it when using Egypt’s Suez Canal.

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View full Image View full Image The Bab el-Mandeb waterway, an unavoidable transit point for merchant ships that use Egypt’s Suez Canal. Source: Energy Information Administration. Based on 2016 data.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, which restricts tanker movement to two channels, each roughly two miles wide for incoming and outgoing traffic.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait serves as a key route for transporting Saudi oil shipments from the port of Yanbu on the kingdom’s western coast. Saudi Arabia moves several million barrels of crude oil daily from its eastern fields to Yanbu through a pipeline, allowing it to bypass Iran’s obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to US Energy Information Administration, around 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in 2016 en route to Europe, the United States, and Asia—up from 3.3 million barrels per day in 2011.

See the table below:

View full Image View full Image Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on ClipperData, Inc; Suez Canal Authority; and International Group of LNG Importers (GIIGNL) using EIA conversion factors.

If Bab el-Mandeb gets blocked, can oil exporters bypass the Strait? If the Bab el-Mandeb were closed, oil tankers departing from the Persian Gulf would be unable to access the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline, disrupting key global energy routes, according to US Energy Information Administration.

However, oil shipments from the Persian Gulf to Europe and North America can avoid the Bab el-Mandeb by taking a longer route around the southern tip of Africa, according to a Bloomberg report.

But, this increases travel distances.

For example, a journey from Fujairah to Houston becomes about 2,660 nautical miles longer, roughly a 28% increase. The distance to Rotterdam rises by around 4,800 nautical miles, or 78%, while a trip to Augusta in Italy nearly triples to about 10,860 nautical miles, Bloomberg reported.

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These longer routes raise shipping and fuel costs and can disrupt supply chains. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, transporting oil from Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam takes about 22 days via the Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal, compared with roughly 39 days when rerouted around Africa, the report stated.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait as political tool? The strait has historically been used by political actors as a strategic tool to inflict economic damage on their rivals. During the Yom Kippur War, Egyptian forces effectively cut off Israel’s trade by blocking access through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In 2002, a French oil tanker was targeted in a terrorist attack near the Yemeni coast.

Yemen also relies heavily on this route to export its oil and petroleum products.

Any disruption to navigation through the strait would have severe economic consequences for the country and could also drive up global oil and fuel prices.

Between November 2023 and January 2025, Houthi rebels launched missile and drone attacks on more than 100 merchant ships, sinking two of them. The group claimed the attacks were in support of Palestinians in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas conflict, as reported by AP.

The Houthis’ renewed activity could complicate the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, which arrived in Croatia on Saturday for maintenance.

Sending the carrier to the Red Sea might expose it to attacks similar to those experienced by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in 2024 and the USS Harry S. Truman in 2025.