The US-Israeli war on Iran is in its fifth week, and according to opinion polls, it is the most unpopular conflict in the country’s history. This is more bad news for the Donald Trump administration, which is already on the back foot in the midterm elections in November.
A prolonged war, or even more US losses, including service personnel, could further tilt the vote in favour of the Democrats, leaving Trump a lame-duck president for the rest of his second and last term in office.
Republican presidential candidate in 2028 Despite Trump’s repeated suggestion that his name could be on the ballot in 2028, the 79-year-old is unlikely to get a third term, leaving one of his two close confidants as his likely successor as the Republican Presidential candidate.
These are US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Analysts believe that the Iran war could be the make-or-break moment for Vance and Rubio, both of whom are currently involved in the negotiation process.
Is Trump favouring Rubio? Some Republicans say they are watching closely for which senior aide Trump appears to favor as the Iran conflict unfolds.
According to Reuters, a swift end to the war that favors the US might bolster Rubio, who also serves as Trump's national security adviser and could be seen as a steady hand during a crisis. A prolonged conflict could give Vance space to argue he reflected the anti-war instincts of Trump’s base without openly breaking with the president.
"Everyone is watching the body language that Trump makes on Rubio and not seeing the same on Vance," a Republican with close ties to the White House told Reuters.
The White House, however, rejected the idea that Trump is signaling a preference.
"No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration's mission of fighting for the American people," spokesman Steven Cheung said.
What could work for Vance Recently, Vance was involved in what is being described as a tense phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu over overstating the possibility of a US-Israeli bombing campaign toppling the Iranian regime.
According to Axios, US officials also think some of their Israeli counterparts consider the vice president insufficiently hawkish, and that the Israelis were seeking to undermine the vice president as he takes a lead role in efforts to end the war.
A senior US official told Axios that “if the Iranians can’t strike a deal with Vance, they don’t get a deal. He’s the best they’re gonna get.”
According to Reuters, Vance could take on a more direct role in negotiations if Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner make sufficient progress, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
Rubio vs Vance A person familiar with Vance's views told Reuters the vice president will wait until after the November midterm elections before deciding on whether to run in 2028.
Rubio has said he will not run for president if Vance does, and sources familiar with Rubio's views say he would be content as Vance's running mate.
In the past, Trump has floated the idea of Vance and Rubio running together, suggesting they would be hard to beat.