Dhurandhar 2 drives hopes of Q4 revival amid weak box office trends
Live Events
Dhurandhar franchise builds on recall and sequel advantage
Dhurandhar 2 lifts occupancy outlook
Dhurandhar may be blockbuster. What about ad revenues?
Dhurandhar boost aligns with PVRINOX balance sheet recovery
as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now!
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel
Dhurandhar: The Revenge, the sequel to the blockbuster Ranveer Singh-starrer spy action film, is set to test whether a single blockbuster can steady a weak quarter for India’s exhibition sector, with Elara Capital’s Karan Taurani projecting a record-breaking run for Dhurandhar 2 Dhurandhar 2 has crossed one million advance bookings at PVR INOX, the country’s largest multiplex chain, ahead of its global release on March 19, pointing to strong early demand and positioning the film among the biggest theatrical openings this year. To build momentum ahead of release, PVR INOX has lined up paid preview screenings on March 18, a day before the official opening, across select premium screens nationwide.Taurani, Executive Vice President and Research Analyst at Elara Capital, expects “Dhurandhar 2” to open at Rs 100 crore net domestic box office on day one across more than 8,000 screens. The film could deliver net domestic lifetime collections of Rs 1,100–1,300 crore, potentially becoming India’s first Hindi original film to cross the Rs 1,000 crore mark. That performance could help support a subdued fourth quarter for FY26 at the box office.The forecast comes as Taurani maintained his occupancy assumptions for the exhibition business. He pointed to PVRINOX’s reduced net debt, a stronger content pipeline and improving return on invested capital compared with FY25 as factors underpinning the investment case. The brokerage retained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,300.“Dhurandhar: The Revenge” is set for a wide pan-India release on March 19, with Taurani expecting a strong opening supported by advance bookings of around 12 lakh tickets and paid previews contributing Rs 20–25 crore.The franchise could emerge as the highest-grossing film series in India in net domestic terms. Combined box office collections of Dhurandhar 1 and 2 may reach around Rs 2,000 crore, surpassing earlier benchmarks set by Baahubali at about Rs 1,400 crore and Pushpa at roughly Rs 1,500 crore. This would place the Dhurandhar franchise among the biggest grossing film properties in the country. Within the Hindi original category, the sequel is likely to rank among the top domestic earners.The timing of the sequel’s release is also a factor. “Dhurandhar 2” is arriving about three and a half months after the first film, allowing it to benefit from strong recall and an already established audience base. Taurani pointed to historical trends where sequels outperform original films by roughly 40–50%, driven by higher awareness and stronger initial traction, and expects a similar pattern here.For cinema operators, the film could provide a much-needed lift. Box office collections in the fourth quarter of FY26 have been muted so far, with only Border 2 at Rs 330 crore and The Raja Saab at Rs 140 crore standing out. Against this backdrop, Dhurandhar 2 could support both overall collections and occupancy levels in the quarter, with spillover benefits likely to extend into the first quarter of FY27 assuming a theatrical run of three to four weeks.Taurani expects exhibitor occupancy to hold at around 28% in the fourth quarter, in line with the second and third quarters of FY26, translating into a full-year occupancy of about 26.7%, broadly matching earlier estimates. Strong footfalls could also push up average ticket prices, particularly in premium formats. However, the lack of other major Hindi releases in the quarter may cap occupancy below the 30% mark.Advertising revenue remains a weaker link. Taurani said a meaningful recovery in ad income depends on consistent performance of Hindi films , which can command premium pricing. At the same time, a structural shift of advertising budgets towards digital platforms is likely to limit per-screen monetisation and constrain overall gains in return on invested capital.While Dhurandhar 2 is expected to act as a near-term catalyst, Taurani said it would largely offset the weak box office trend seen so far rather than drive a full recovery. His FY26 occupancy estimate of about 26.5% remains unchanged, incorporating roughly 28% occupancy in the fourth quarter. Occupancy levels may sustain near 28% for three consecutive quarters, although they remain around 15% below pre-Covid levels. Advertising revenues are about 30% below pre-pandemic levels as brands continue to shift towards digital channels, making ad recovery critical for margin expansion.PVRINOX, meanwhile, continues to reduce leverage. Net debt stood at Rs 3.6 billion in December 2025 and could fall by 62% to Rs 1.4 billion following the 4700BC deal with Marcio. This raises the possibility of the company becoming net debt-free as early as FY27, supporting an improvement in return on invested capital.With a stronger balance sheet, Taurani expects the company to resume screen expansion after a period of consolidation. Lower leverage and improved profitability, driven by stable occupancy and double-digit ROIC through FY28 compared with less than 5% in FY25, are expected to improve the risk-reward profile over the medium term.Elara Capital maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on PVRINOX with a target price of Rs 1,300, valuing the stock at 13 times EBITDA on a pre-Ind AS basis, while advising investors to monitor the film’s box office performance closely.