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Why are markets rising today? Key factors driving the rally:
1) Oil prices ease
2) Global markets rise
3) Bond yield declines
4) Value buying
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Indian stock markets extended gains for a third straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex rising more than 600 points and the Nifty 50 closing near 23,800 mark, supported by easing oil prices and other factors.The Sensex advanced 633 points to close at 76,704, while the Nifty 50 rose 197 points to end the session at 23,778, after briefly reclaiming the 23,800 mark. Today's gains added more than Rs 5 lakh crore to the total market capitalisation of all BSE-listed companies, taking it to nearly Rs 439 lakh crore.Zomato-parent Eternal closed as the top gainers on Sensex, jumping more than 3%. IT stocks like Infosys, Tech Mahindra and HCLTech followed, along with Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Adani Ports. Bucking the trend, NTPC and Hindustan Unilever dropped over 1% to emerge as the top losers on the index.Tracking the sharp gains in IT stocks, Nifty IT surged nearly 3% to be one of the top sectoral gainers on NSE. Nifty Realty and Nifty Auto also recorded sharp gains. Nifty Metal and Nifty FMCG however ended the session in the red with marginal losses. 2,538 stocks advanced on NSE, while 707 declined and 83 remained unchanged.Oil prices declined on Wednesday, after a mind-boggling rally which was fuelled by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacked ships trying to pass through the critical waterway. Brent crude declined to $103 per barrel, after rising over $110 earlier, while WTI crude fell to $94.73 per barrel. Despite the decline, oil prices are still holding above the key $100 per barrel mark, which they had crossed for the first time earlier this month since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine back in 2022.Today’s fall in oil prices comes after the Iraqi government and Kurdish authorities reached an agreement to resume oil exports through Turkey's Ceyhan port, providing modest relief to concerns about Middle East supplies. Additionally, around 90 ships including oil tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the outset of the war with Iran and it is still exporting millions of barrels of oil at a time when the waterway has been effectively closed, according to maritime and trade data platforms cited by Associated Press.Wall Street ended higher on Tuesday, as the US Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting amid investors' worries about high oil prices and the Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 climbed 0.25% to end the session at 6,716.09. Tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.47% to 22,479.53, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10%.Asian markets mostly remained in the green, with Japan’s Nikkei jumping nearly 3% and South Korea’s Kospi rallying over 5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained marginally.In Europe meanwhile, France’s CAC gained more than 1%, Germany’s DAX rose over 0.77% and UK’s FTSE gained 0.34% in the afternoon.US bond yields on five to 30-year Treasuries declined for the second consecutive session, while two-year yields declined for the third day. The benchmark 10-year yield dipped 2.2 basis points to 4.198%. U.S. two-year yields, which reflect interest-rate expectations, were also down, slipping 1.1 bps to 3.669%. The yield has slid nearly 10 basis points over the last three days, the largest three-day fall since late November.Notably, markets are actively awaiting comments from the US Federal Reserve which is set to announce the decisions taken during its FOMC meeting later today.The ongoing buying spree in Indian markets comes after a massive selloff seen during the first two weeks of March, as the escalating tensions between Iran and US-Israel rattled markets. Sensex and Nifty had crashed up to 10% during that time, wiping off a significant chunk of investors’ wealth.The sharp selloff may have led to investors resorting to value buying.Despite the optimism in the markets, some caution is warranted. The war between Iran and US-Israel still shows no sign of de-escalation, and continues to rattle the oil-rich Middle East. Iran confirmed on Tuesday that its security chief Ali Larijani had been killed in an Israeli attack. US military meanwhile said it had targeted sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz because Iranian anti-ship missiles posed a risk to international shipping there.Indian rupee crashed 25 paise to close at record low of 92.65 against the US dollar. “The combination of strong dollar demand and rising energy costs is keeping the rupee under pressure,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities.“The overall bias remains weak as long as crude sustains at higher levels. Market focus now shifts to the US Fed policy decisio… which is expected to act as a key trigger for the next directional move in the dollar, and consequently, the rupee,” he added.Foreign investors meanwhile continued to offload Indian equities, selling shares worth Rs 4,741 crore on Monday — marking their 13th consecutive session of net selling. While this does not reflect today’s activity, sustained outflows in recent sessions have weighed on investor sentiment.Domestic markets extended their recovery, supported by opportunistic buying after the recent sell-off, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, who added that the rebound was broad-based, driven by a combination of short covering and value buying, with leadership from IT, realty, and auto sectors, alongside strength in mid- and small-cap stocks.“Long-term value persists, however, near-term upside remains constrained due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, elevated crude prices, and continued rupee depreciation. Investors are now awaiting policy decisions from major global central banks—including the Fed, ECB, BoJ, and BoE—where guidance will be crucial in assessing the impact of the US–Iran conflict on the future interest rate outlook,” he added.Nifty has recorded a positive close for the last three sessions. On Monday, the index closed with a piercing line pattern (bullish reversal pattern) on the daily timeframe, on Tuesday it closed breaking out of the falling channel on the hourly chart, and on Wednesday it closed above the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.“The daily RSI has reversed from the deep oversold zone and currently it is in a bullish crossover, suggesting positive momentum. The sentiment is likely to remain positive with a possibility to rise towards 24,250. Meanwhile, support is placed at 23,500, which is likely to remain a support for the short term,” he added.