Iran says allies will close Bab El-Mandeb Strait if situation gets out of control: Can it become the next Hormuz?

Hours after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to target the US and its partners' infrastructure, a senior Iranian source told Reuters on Tuesday (local time) that if the situation gets out of control, Tehran's allies will also close the Bab El-Mandeb Strait.

Citing the source, the report added that while the US and Iran continue to exchange messages via Pakistan, Tehran will not show flexibility as long as Washington continues to demand its "surrender under pressure."

According to an Al Jazeera report, if the Bab El-Mandeb were to close, the consequences would extend far beyond the current conflict. It could intensify the global energy supply crisis triggered by the war, worsening the economic strain already being felt in factories, households, and fuel stations worldwide.

Here's all you need to know about the Bab El-Mandeb Strait What is Bab El-Mandeb? The Bab El-Mandeb Strait is a crucial waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden for global oil trade. It is a 32-kilometer (20-mile) strait, which serves as the only entry point to the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean, connecting it to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal.

How much of global trade passes through the Strait? According to Al Jazeera, the Strait is responsible for transporting roughly 12 percent of global trade daily.

What will happen if the route is disrupted? When the route is disrupted, the ships are forced to detour around Africa, which adds another 10 to 14 days to delivery schedules.

Where is the Bab El-Mandeb? The Strait lies between Yemen to the northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa to the southwest. At its narrowest, it spans about 29 kilometers (18 miles), which restricts movement to two shipping lanes for incoming and outgoing vessels, and it is largely under the influence of Iran-backed Houthi forces.

What is the importance of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait? The Strait serves as a vital route via which Saudi Arabia sends its oil to Asia. Even when the Strait of Hormuz was open, the Bab El-Mandeb Strait was a crucial passageway for Gulf states besides Saudi Arabia to export their crude oil, gas, and fuels to Europe, either through the Suez Canal or the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) Pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast.

In 2024, roughly 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through Bab El-Mandeb, which was five percent of the global total.

What would happen if Bab El-Mandeb were shut? Report suggests that if Bab El-Mandeb is shut along with the Strait of Hormuz, which has been shut since March after the war broke out in late February, this would block 25 percent or a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply. Apart from oil, roughly 10 percent of global trade sails via the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, including containers shipped from China, India, and other Asian nations to Europe.