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With global markets rattled by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices Dipan Mehta , Director at Elixir Equities , is counselling investors to resist the urge to make sweeping portfolio changes — and instead let the dust settle before acting.In a candid conversation with ET Now, Mehta drew on over three decades of market experience to deliver a clear message: Patience pays."I have seen this play out many times in my life. It is best not to chase momentum plays on the upside or the downside," he said. "Just stay put — that advice has worked well over the last 32 years."For long-term investors already holding positions, Mehta advises against drastic moves like liquidating entire portfolios or moving 30–40% of holdings into cash. Instead, he recommends using this period for minor, quality-improving reshuffles — shifting toward growth stocks and sectors where one is currently underweight.The single most important data point to watch, according to Mehta, is oil prices. Until crude stabilises and its inflationary impact is contained, he warns that markets will remain volatile and range-bound.On banking, Mehta struck a cautious tone. He flagged that CASA ratios across the industry have hit multi-quarter lows, making it increasingly difficult for banks to raise low-cost deposits. This, he believes, will compress net interest margins — hurting private sector banks more than their PSU counterparts.His advice: Be underweight on banks broadly, with a tilt toward PSU banks over private ones. Within financials, he favours multi-product NBFCs, calling out Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Finance, L&T Finance, and Poonawalla Fincorp as stronger bets. His reasoning is straightforward — diversified NBFCs can shift focus between segments depending on risk cycles, unlike single-product lenders such as microfinance or pure gold loan companies, which have shown sharp value erosion when their niche turns adverse.On automobiles, Mehta is broadly positive but tempered. He expects base effects to moderate growth this financial year. However, he sees potential upside for EV-focused players, particularly in the two-wheeler space. He specifically named Ola Electric and Ather as companies that could benefit from policy support aimed at accelerating electric vehicle adoption.Perhaps most notably, Mehta highlighted two emerging investment themes he believes could produce multibagger returns over a three-to-five year horizon.The first is currency-driven export opportunity. With the rupee settling around 94, Mehta believes this weaker currency environment is here to stay, and investors should identify exporters who stand to gain. A potential free trade agreement with the United States could further amplify winners in this space.The second is energy security. Much like India built self-reliance in defence manufacturing and semiconductors, Mehta expects the government to push hard on domestic energy independence. He describes this as a powerful, multi-component theme with several distinct sub-sectors — one that could reward early investors handsomely.Mehta also flagged the risk of a below-normal monsoon, recommending investors go slightly underweight on fertilisers, pesticides, two-wheelers, microfinance companies, and select commercial vehicle makers. FMCG companies with high rural exposure could also face three to four quarters of earnings pressure if the monsoon disappoints.Regarding the Reserve Bank of India's latest monetary policy, Mehta was measured. He acknowledged the RBI's decision to revise inflation expectations upward as a prudent move to manage market expectations after several quarters of benign inflation. However, he maintained that until interest rates actually change, RBI policy has limited direct impact on stock valuations.His overall message to investors remains consistent: stay calm, stay invested, and watch oil prices closely. The market's next big move will likely follow from there.