Markets hold ground despite uncertainty
Live Events
Has the market bottomed out?
Investment strategy: Focus on quality
You Might Also Like: US Stock Market: Wall Street ends sharply higher on US-Iran ceasefire
Divergence across asset classes
You Might Also Like: Dharmesh Kant sees buying opportunities in largecaps despite volatility; defence, banks in focus
Outlook: Volatility with opportunity
as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now!
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel
Global equity markets are displaying surprising resilience despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, with investors increasingly betting on a gradual move towards diplomatic resolution. However, market experts warn that volatility is far from over and advise a cautious, phased investment approach.Matt Orton, Head of Advisory Solutions and Market Strategy at Raymond James Investment , believes that while the path to a formal resolution remains uncertain, recent developments indicate a directional shift towards diplomacy.“The fact that both sides are willing to engage in ceasefire discussions suggests movement towards some form of resolution, even though there may be disruptions along the way,” he said, talking to ET Now.After a strong global rally across markets—from Asia to the United States—investors are now navigating a phase of consolidation. The recent pause in momentum reflects rising uncertainty over how negotiations will unfold, rather than a fundamental deterioration in sentiment.Interestingly, key risk indicators such as crude oil and gold have not reacted sharply to geopolitical developments, which typically would trigger spikes. This muted response suggests that investor positioning had already turned defensive, leaving room for cautious optimism.Orton noted that markets are not “rolling over” despite negative headlines, indicating underlying strength. “Investor sentiment had become so washed out that many are now taking a cautiously optimistic view of the next few weeks,” he explained.A key question for investors is whether global markets have already hit their bottom. According to Orton, while there is still a possibility of escalation—such as deeper military involvement—the probability of such extreme scenarios is declining.This shift in probabilities has prompted a gradual re-entry into equities by institutional investors. Orton himself indicated that he had raised cash earlier during the conflict and is now selectively deploying capital into sectors with strong long-term growth visibility.However, he cautioned against making aggressive bets. “You cannot say with certainty that the lows are behind us. We are likely to remain in a volatile trading range for some time,” he said.In the current environment, experts recommend focusing on high-quality companies with durable earnings and minimal exposure to near-term disruptions such as energy price shocks or supply chain volatility.Sectors with strong structural growth drivers are likely to outperform, particularly those less dependent on global commodities. Investors are also being advised to adopt a staggered investment strategy—gradually building positions rather than deploying large sums at once.“You want to wade into positions, add incrementally, and watch if markets continue to form higher lows and highs,” Orton said, highlighting the importance of disciplined portfolio allocation.One of the most notable trends in recent sessions has been the divergence between equity markets and traditional safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil. Despite headlines suggesting potential ceasefire violations, markets have remained steady, reflecting confidence in the broader recovery narrative.Orton described this as a sign of the strength of the recent rally, supported by broad participation and strong trading volumes. “The market appears biased towards the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp, even though uncertainty still exists,” he said.While near-term volatility is expected to persist, the broader outlook for global markets remains cautiously positive. Much of the geopolitical risk appears to be priced in, and any signs of sustained de-escalation could act as a catalyst for further gains.That said, investors must remain mindful of potential setbacks. The unpredictable nature of geopolitical developments means that sharp corrections cannot be ruled out.For now, the consensus among market strategists is clear: stay selective, focus on quality, and invest gradually. As Orton summed up, “There is growing confidence that we may have seen the lows—but it is not a certainty. Investors need to balance optimism with caution.”