Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East's reshuffling is not yet done

The long-term consequences of the war will reverberate across the Middle East and beyond. The wealthy Arab monarchies of the Gulf have spent years and billions on turning themselves into global hubs for business, tourism and air travel. A few weeks of Iranian attacks have done lasting damage to that strategy for modernisation and development. They are also reassessing their alliances with the US. They will not break with Washington – they need the Americans too much – but they are looking to diversify their future security. The old model of getting as close as possible to the US has not worked.