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A West-Asia war dividend
India and the new oil map
The longer the war the larger the gain
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In a war that is redrawing energy maps and rattling global markets, one country is quietly counting its gains from the sidelines: Russia.As Iran squeezes flows through the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow artery that carries nearly a fifth of the world’s oil—prices have surged, supply chains have tightened, and panic has rippled across energy markets. But for Moscow, this chaos is proving to be a windfall.According to a report by the Financial Times, Russia is earning an estimated $150 million a day in additional oil revenue since the effective disruption of Hormuz traffic. It’s a staggering reversal of fortune. Only weeks ago, millions of barrels of Russian crude were stranded at sea, shunned by buyers wary of Western sanctions aimed at choking off funds for the Russia-Ukraine war.The escalation involving the U.S., Israel and Iran has upended Washington’s own sanctions calculus. Faced with the risk of runaway oil prices, the U.S. has issued a temporary waiver allowing countries to purchase Russian crude already in transit. What was once toxic is suddenly tradable."To increase the global reach of existing supply, @USTreasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea. This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X.The intent may be to stabilise markets. The effect is something else entirely.With benchmark Brent crude hovering around $119 a barrel—up sharply from around $73 before the war begun—Russia is selling into a seller’s market. Its flagship Urals crude, once heavily discounted, has clawed back value. In some cases, it is even commanding a premium. This is not just about price. It is about positioning.“So far, there is only one winner in this war — Russia. It steadily undermines Ukraine’s position by flouting international law. It gains new resources to finance its war against Ukraine as energy prices rise,” António Costa, the President of the European council said earlier this week.An estimated 130 million barrels of Russian crude were floating on tankers in early March. With sanctions temporarily loosened and buyers returning, those barrels are now being rapidly absorbed. The longer disruptions persist in the Gulf, the more indispensable Russian oil becomes.Another potential winner is Russia, Bloomberg reported,which has been steadily ferrying LNG to China to work around tighter Western restrictions and the loss of Europe as a top gas buyer.China’s latest five-year plan, published earlier this month, calls for advancing work on the China-Russia central-route natural gas pipeline — a likely reference to Power of Siberia 2. Until recently Moscow had promoted the project with far greater enthusiasm than Beijing, which has long been more concerned with diversifying supply, Bloomberg added.For import-dependent economies like India, the shift is immediate and pragmatic.With Hormuz flows choked, Indian refiners have sharply ramped up purchases of Russian crude—imports surged to about 1.5 million barrels per day in early March, a roughly 50% jump from February levels. Cargoes once avoided are now being actively sought.Washington, too, appears to be recalibrating. "India has been a great partner in maintaining stable oil prices around the world. The United States recognizes ongoing purchases of Russian oil are a part of this effort," U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said this week, signalling a tacit acceptance of a reality that would have been politically untenable months ago.What makes this moment especially consequential is its trajectory. The longer oil flows through Hormuz remain constrained, the stronger Russia’s hand becomes. Higher prices, tighter supply, and renewed buyer interest combine to create a near-perfect storm in Moscow’s favour.For a country grappling with a widening fiscal deficit and the mounting costs of war, this is not just relief—it is leverage.In a conflict defined by destruction and disruption, Russia’s oil sector is doing something altogether different: thriving.And in a war where no one is supposed to win, that may be the most unsettling outcome of all.