Key pollster skips, most predict BJP win, Mamata says guard EVMs: The Bengal exit poll knot
Key pollster skips, most predict BJP win, Mamata says guard EVMs: The Bengal exit poll knot
Most exit polls in West Bengal have predicted that the BJP will win the assembly election.
Updated on: May 01, 2026 6:40 AM IST
The West Bengal assembly election results are just days away, but the state's exit polls have left many knotty points. A key pollster has skipped projections entirely for Bengal while releasing exit poll figures for other states, while the state's sitting chief minister has called on her workers to guard EVM strongrooms.
Security personnel stand guard outside the Strong Room following the conclusion of Phase 2 of the West Bengal Assembly election 2026, in Kolkata on Thursday. (ANI Video Grab)
Most exit polls in West Bengal have predicted that the BJP will win the assembly election when the results are announced on May 4. Chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) has rejected the poll projections, even though some predict the party will retain power and return for a fourth term.
Here is what has happened in Bengal since the polls closed after the second phase of voting on April 29.
The West Bengal exit poll conundrum
Axis My India, one of India's major pollsters, skipped releasing exit poll projections for West Bengal,
saying voters were keeping mum about their choice
The reason behind not releasing the exit polls for Bengal stemmed from the fact that a majority of the voters, 70 per cent to be precise, refuse to participate in the exit poll survey, a statement released on behalf of Axis My India founder Pradeep Gupta said.
The pollster said the high degree of hesitancy and refusal rate "exceeded historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias".
Most exit polls predict a BJP win, 2 outliers
Matrize and P-Marq suggested the BJP winning Bengal, ending Mamata's 15-year reign. The Poll Diary survey suggested the BJP winning 142-171 seats, while the TMC trailing with 99-127 seats.
The JVC exit poll predicted a tight contest between the two camps, with the TMC projected to get 131-152 seats, while the BJP getting 138-159 seats. Today’s Chanakya also projected the BJP winning almost 200 seats.
People's Pulse and Janmat polls, however, projected a TMC tide in Bengal, giving Mamata a fourth term. While People's Pulse gave TMC 177 to 187 seats and the BJP 95 to 110 seats, Janmat predicted an even cleaner sweep for the incumbent, projecting 195 to 205 seats for TMC and 80 to 90 seats for the BJP.
In 2021, predictions were sharply divided
, with agencies offering contrasting outcomes. CVoter projected the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) to retain power comfortably with 158 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was estimated at 115. On the other hand, the Republic-CNX poll flipped the script, giving the BJP an edge with 143 seats and placing the TMC at 133.
Axis My India suggested an even tighter race, projecting the TMC between 130 and 156 seats and the BJP between 134 and 160 – effectively indicating that either party could cross the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly.
When the results were declared, the outcome differed significantly from most projections. The TMC secured a sweeping victory, winning 215 seats, while the BJP won only 77 seats.
The election, held over eight phases, had seen the BJP mount a strong challenge against Banerjee, while the CPI(M)-Congress-ISF alliance added a third angle in several constituencies but failed to make a substantial impact.
High EVM drama after Mamata’s call
High drama erupted in Kolkata after the TMC made a major tampering claim about the opening of ballot boxes in the EVM strongroom on Wednesday, after Mamata Banerjee called on party workers to guard EVM strongrooms.
The row began with TMC candidate from Beleghata assembly constituency, Kunal Ghosh, and party leader Shashi Panja, who sat on a dharna (sit-in) in Kolkata, alleging that the Election Commission and the BJP opened ballot boxes in strong rooms in the absence of relevant stakeholders.
The TMC later said in a statement that party supremo Mamata Banerjee would personally visit the location to “take stock of the situation”.
called on party workers to stay up all night to guard the EVM strongrooms.
“BJP has played the final game. Share markets would have toppled if the real figures were released. People need to stay together, keep a close watch on counting... stay up all night,” she said, adding that she will guard the EVM strongrooms herself if need be.
“They plan to swap EVMs .... till the time I hold a press conference and declare, do not leave counting tables ... they might change data in computers, giving our numbers to BJP and BJP's to us, I myself will go to the counting hall, I can do that as a candidate. You have gone through so much. Please bear slightly more to save Bengal,” she said.
Shivam Pratap Singh is a digital journalist who works as a Deputy Chief Content Producer with Hindustan Times. Having previously worked with various platforms covering national, international as well as sports events, he blends in various topics to easy to read news pieces for the benefit of the reader. Shivam holds a Master's degree in International Relations from Jamia Millia Islamia, bringing in a unique perspective for whatever is happening around the world. An avid reader, he can be seen immersed in books and book shops while not working. Shivam treats every topic almost equally but loves to right about foreign affairs and politics of India. He has over half-a-decade of experience in digital journalism though his career started in print.
Key Pollster Skips, Most Predict BJP Win, Mamata Says Guard EVMs: The Bengal Exit Poll Knot
